}

Tuesday, October 15, 2024

Will it be counted?

I’ve voted in the 2024 USA’s federal elections, as I always do, but I don’t know for sure that my ballot will be counted. There are several different reasons for that, but all of them have the same cause: Republicans. The party that once liked to call itself “The Party of Lincoln” has now positioned itself as an enemy of democracy, and voters like me are in the party’s crosshairs.

US citizens living overseas indefinitely are entitled to vote in federal elections, just like US military personnel stationed overseas can. US citizens living overseas temporarily, like workers on a short-term assignment from their US employer, or those attending school overseas, would most likely apply for a standard absentee ballot. However, US citizens who are living overseas indefinitely (like me), register through a state-administered federal system, using the Federal Post Card Application (FPCA) to register and get a ballot. The FPCA forms require a Social Security number, the number of one’s state Driver license or state ID. Many US citizens living overseas indefinitely won’t have a state driver license or ID card, so providing them isn’t mandatory (it’s probably there to establish ongoing state residency for folks that applies to). All applicants also provide the address where they were last registered to vote. The organisation “Vote from Abroad” has a good explanation of what a “US voting address” is on their website:
As a US citizen living abroad, your “voting address” is the street address of the last place you lived in the US. This general rule applies even if your family no longer owns the property, or you no longer have ties to the state, or you don't intend to return to that address or that state, or if it no longer exists as a residence. It also doesn't matter if you were ever registered to vote at that address.

If you are a US citizen who has never lived in the US, your “voting address” is the street address of the last place your US citizen parent (or spouse) lived in the US. If both of your parents are US citizens, you may use the last US address of either one.
The Republican presidential candidate has been whining constantly about mail-in voting of all kinds, and has repeatedly demanded it be ended (which won’t happen because it would harm Republicans, too), and lately his target has been to demand that no mail-in votes be counted after Election Day. He recently talked yet again (again) about suing to end mail-in voting [this was discussed by Democracy Docket’s Marc Elias and Brian Tyler Cohen on a recent episode of their “Democracy Watch” YouTube series].

This gets at MAGA Republicans’ first attempt to destroy voting by mail: Their hand-picked Postmaster General, who has done everything in his power to destroy postal delivery efficiency and timeliness, something Republicans want because it would mean that completed postal ballots may take too long to be delivered to the various states’ election authorities, just as MAGAts want.

Right now, many US states, including my native Illinois (which is, of course, the place of my own FPCA registration and voting) accept and count all postal ballots postmarked on or before Election Day that are received with a certain number of days after Election day. This long-standing programme has become a particular target of Republicans.

In Illinois, ballots—again, postmarked on or before Election Day—will be counted if they’re received within 14 days after Election Day. On May 25, 2022, a lawsuit, Bost v. Illinois State Board of Elections was filed on behalf of three Republicans, including US Representative Mike Bost (R-IL12), who was one of 126 Republican US Representatives to sign an amicus brief in support of Texas v. Pennsylvania, the infamous and idiotic MAGA lawsuit filed with the US Supreme Court contesting the results of the 2020 presidential election in another state—one they donb’t even fucking live in. It was surely one of the most utterly bizarre and offensive legal stunts MAGA Republican politicians pulled, apart from every other suit filed by the Republican loser’s team of misfits and ne’re do wells. Then, January 6, when so many of them tried to stop the certification of the election and install the Republican candidate as president, even though he lost the election, was lightyears worse.

The Republicans’ Illinois lawsuit argued that federal law requires all US states to hold Election Day on the first Tuesday in November, but Illinois allowing mail-in ballots to be received and counted for up to two weeks after Election Day effectively extended Election Day and, because of that, they bizarrely claimed that votes on Election Day are “diluted by illegal ballots received in violation of the federal Election Day statutes.” Ballots from US Citizens exercising their Constitutional right to vote, Republocans claimed, somehow magically “diluted” other citizens’ votes, because—who know why?! It’s always best to not explore Republicans’ very weird fantasies. The case was dismissed by the District Court, not on merit, but because of a lack of jurisdiction. The Republicans appealed to the 7th US Circuit Court of Appeals, but they upheld the District Court dismissal on August 21, 2024. This means the 14-days after Election Day deadline remains—for now.

Meanwhile, Republicans also targeted Mississippi’s law, which has a deadline of 5 business days after Election day for mail-in ballots to be received. On January 26, 2024, the Republican National Committee (RNC), along with local Republicans, filed a suit, Republican National Committee v. Wetzel, making the same arguments they made in the Illinois case, but they also claimed that the extended deadline for mail-in ballots to be received somehow magically violated their right to vote under the 14th Amendment, because, Republicans, or something. A summary judgement on July 28, 2024 reaffirmed the exisiting Mississippi deadline.

The Republicans then announced their intention to appeal to the 5th US Circuit Court of Appeals, the most conservative—and arguably the most MAGA—in the entire country. We know the RNC did this precisely so that whichever way the court ruled, the loser—either the RNC or the Republican officials in Mississippi if they lost—could ultimately appeal the case to the Republican US Supreme Court, with the (probably) justified hope that the far-right Republican Majority will rule to help their shared party by outlawing the long-established precedent of counting mail-in ballots received before the state’s legislated deadline. In fact, the Republican-controlled Mississippi state legislature offered to repeal the law, but the RNC ordered them not to do that so they could get their Supreme Court to help them.

If the Republican Supreme Court does outlaw the counting of mail-in ballots received after Election Day, it, together with Republicans’ attempts to destroy the US Postal Service, will directly affect overseas voters like me. That’s because the attacks on the postal service mean it’s questionable whether a mail-in ballot sent from overseas has any chance of arriving by, let alone before, Election Day (no matter when it’s posted), so taking away the extra days many states permit may make it even more likely that the votes of overseas citizens won’t be counted—which is exactly what the Republican Party and its Dear Leader want.

There are a handful of other options for longterm overseas citizens. Some states allow other means of submitting ballots, including sending them by fax or other electronic means (Republicans will definitely challenge those methods, too). Overseas citizens can drop off their ballots to a US diplomatic post, providing the envelope has the correct postage on it, and the staff will put the ballots in a “diplomatic pouch” to send to the USA, where they’ll be sent to the postal service. This method may cut a few days off the mailing time, however, it could mean a special trip. For example, NZ has two US diplomatic posts, the Embassy in Wellington, and Consulate in Auckland, so I, too, might have to make a special trip (I’ve heard, though, that ballots can be couriered to a diplomatic post, though I haven’t personally verified that).

Another possible option might be to use a courier service, which Illinois law allows. However, it has special requirements, apparently around federal licensing, which usually means major companies. Of the ones I know are acceptable, the only one I know for sure is still operating in New Zealand is FedEx, but as far as I know their only facility in New Zealand is at Auckland International Airport, and there’s no other option for collection. In the past, NZ Post had an arrangement with DHL who were their US partner for document deliveries in the USA. I didn’t know that wasn’t the case anymore until 2020 when I went to send my ballot by courier, and the carrier was a company I’d never heard of. I know the ballot was delivered to Chicago, but I never got a confirmation email that it was counted, so I don’t know whether or not it was. On the other hand, maybe they stopped sending the emails after 2016.

So, regardless of what happens with the RNC’s court stunts, I have no idea whether my ballot will arrive in Chicago in time to be counted, or whether or not it will be counted if it does. This doesn’t matter in that Illinois is a solidly Democratic state, and Harris-Walz will carry Illinois—everyone knows that. There’s no US Senate election this year, so the only other federal office I got to vote for was US Representative, and the incumbent Democrat will win that race. My vote, then, technically isn’t needed—but it was never about that: It’s my duty to vote. It’s my values in action, along with my commitment to democracy, neither of which would ever permit me to sit out this election—or to vote for anyone other than Harris-Walz. I hope most Americans are the same.

I also hope this isn’t the last election Americans will ever have, because if the Republicans win, it’s game over. Sorry I have no hopeful words, that's just it. Vote.

Sunday, October 13, 2024

Weekend Diversion: 1984, Part 15

On October 13, 1984, a new song went to Number One: ”I Just Called to Say I Love You” (audio-only video up top, about which, more later) by American singer/songwriter/producer Stevie Wonder began its three week run at Number One on the Billboard “Hot 100”. The song was the lead single from the 1984 movie soundtrack album, The Woman in Red, which was the second Number One in a row to feature in a movie. It was Stevie Wonder’s biggest hit overall, not the least because it went to Number One in many countries (including his first Number One in the UK), and it won a Golden Globe and an Oscar for “Best Original Song” from a movie.

The video above is from Wonder’s official YouTube Channel, and that makes it more likely to remain available long-term. Unofficial videos are far more likely to be taken down, which is a problem for blog posts like this one. However, there was an official music video, about which the Wikipedia article for the song (linked to above) says:
A music video of the song has Wonder, during a concert, singing into a telephone receiver while seated at a piano. By the end of the song, he and the audience are standing and swaying to the music. The video features concert footage recorded in Rotterdam Ahoy, in the Netherlands, on August 10, 1984.
I don’t remember whether I saw the official video at the time—which, of course, doesn’t mean that I didn’t see it. After all, the song was a huge hit, and so I could well have seen it. However, the official video, if that's what it is, was difficult to find on YouTube, though I eventually found one that appears to be it. I’ve included it at the very end of this post in case the video is taken down at some point.

I never saw the film The Woman in Red, and I’m not sure whether I knew at the time that this song was used in the film—maybe I did? It wouldn’t have mattered to me either way, though, since I wasn’t interested in the movie. It’s a little unusual for music videos for songs from movies to not use any footage from the film it was in, but that wasn’t unheard of, either, of course.

Now, about the song itself. I have to be brutally honest here: I never liked this song. I found the melody bland and soporific, at least in part because in that era I liked uptempo music. I also absolutely loathed the way the song ends, though I couldn’t articulate why it bothered me so much. My reaction to it wasn’t improved by advertisers using it in far too many sappy, and even twee, TV commercials over the years, removing the emotional resonance that was in the original song and reducing it to what would now be called cringe.

Having said all of that, it was really just that one song. I’ve liked a lot of Wonder’s work over the years, especially, his legendary 1976 album, Songs in the Key of Life. This song simply was not one I liked, and, despite how it may sound, I didn't hate it, either.

All up, “I Just Called to Say I Love You” topped 19 charts, and among the national charts for countries I write about, it reached Number One in Australia, Canada (3x Platinum), New Zealand (Gold), and the UK (Platinum), as well as Number One on the USA’s Billboard “Hot 100”, “Hot R&B/Hip-Hop Songs”, and “Adult Contemporary” charts, and was also Number One on the Cash Box “Top 100” chart. It was certified Gold in the USA.

The soundtrack album The Woman in Red reached Number 4 in Australia, Canada (2x Platinum), and New Zealand (Gold), Number 2 in the UK (Platinum), and Number 4 on the USA’s “Billboard 200” chart. It was Certified Platinum in the USA.

This series will return November 3 with the next Number One song of 1984.

Previously in the “Weekend Diversion – 1984” series:

Weekend Diversion: 1984, Part 1 – January 21, 2024
Weekend Diversion: 1984, Part 2 – February 4, 2024
Weekend Diversion: 1984, Part 3 – February 25, 2024
Weekend Diversion: 1984, Part 4 – March 31, 2024
Weekend Diversion: 1984, Part 5 – April 21, 2024
Weekend Diversion: 1984, Part 6 – May 12, 2024
Weekend Diversion: 1984, Part 7 – May 26, 2024
Weekend Diversion: 1984, Part 8 – June 9, 2024
Weekend Diversion: 1984, Part 9 – June 23, 2024
Weekend Diversion: 1984, Part 10 – July 7, 2024
Weekend Diversion: 1984, Part 11 – August 11, 2024
Weekend Diversion: 1984, Part 12 – September 1, 2024
Weekend Diversion: 1984, Part 13 – September 22, 2024
Weekend Diversion: 1984, Part 14 – September 29, 2024

Thursday, October 03, 2024

New Zealand is changing

The 2023 New Zealand Census data that I’ve been waiting for has finally been released, and to statistics and demographics nerds like me, it’s utterly fascinating. To avoid burying the lede, New Zealand is finally majority non-religious. I’ve written about that subject several times over the years, and have always said this was inevitable.

This is the way Statistics NZ reported the change:
For the first time since the New Zealand census began to collect religious affiliation, over half of the census usually resident population had no religion at the time of the 2023 Census. The proportion of people with ‘No religion’ steadily increased from 41.9 percent (1,635,348) in 2013, to 48.2 percent (2,264,601) in 2018, and 51.6 percent (2,576,049) in 2023.
That’s an increase of ten points over a decade, but it was a slow change. This is the point where I always point out that “no religion” means precisely that: While it includes the categories atheist and agnostic, it also includes those who have “nothing in particular”. The only thing we know for sure about these people—which, full disclosure, is the category I chose for myself—is that we aren’t part of any organised religion. The stats for religious identification are also changing:
The three largest religious groupings in 2023 were:

• Christian – 1,614,636 people (down 102,543) or 32.3 percent of the total population, compared with 36.5 percent in 2018
• Hindu – 144,753 people (up 21,369) or 2.9 percent compared with 2.6 percent in 2018
• Islam – 75,138 people (up 14,517) or 1.5 percent compared with 1.3 percent in 2018.
I think that the small increase in those choosing Hindu or Islam is probably because of immigration (though that might take deeper analysis to confirm), but it’s fascinating that less than a third of New Zealanders identify as Christian—this in a country once heavily dominated by those identifying as Christian.

New Zealand has actually been a secular nation for a very long time, even when religious identification was still a majority (in other words, 2018 and earlier). In my personal experience, most New Zealanders don’t like having religion shoved in their faces, so much so that door-to-door proselytisers, and pretty much any insistent religious person, is likely to be called a “god botherer” (though not to their faces…) by ordinary Kiwis—even including many of those who identify as Christian. Basically, Kiwis want to be left alone.

The 2023 Census was the first to ask people about their gender, sexual identity, and whether they were born with a variation of sex characteristics. The results showed that around 1 in 20 adults belonged to Rainbow or LGBTIQ+ communities. Wellington has the highest percentage (11.3 percent) of LGBTIQ+ residents, Dunedin was second (with 7.3 percent), then Christchurch (6.0 percent), Palmerston North (5.8 percent), and Hamilton (5.6 percent). Auckland, by far New Zealand’s largest city, had a lower percentage of people who belonged to the LGBTIQ+ population (4.9 percent) than Hamilton has, which surprised me. Within Auckland local board areas, Waitematā, which is mainly the central city, including some historically LGBTIQ+ suburbs (neighbourhoods), had the highest proportion of LGBTIQ+ adults, with 12 percent. [For more detailed information, see “2023 Census shows 1 in 20 adults belong to Aotearoa New Zealand’s LGBTIQ+ population”].

Here are a few random facts I thought were interesting:

• In 2023, 22.5 percent of the population was 60 years and over, and 18.7 percent were children under 15 years. These proportions were 20.8 and 19.6 percent respectivelyin 2018. Also, the average number of children born to each female aged 15 years and over was 1.6, down from 1.7 children in 2018 and 1.8 in 2013. Taken together, this shows why immigration will continue to be important for New Zealand if it is to cope with an aging population and declining numbers of New Zealand-born young people to support them.

• Almost 30 percent of usual residents were born overseas. The most common overseas birthplaces in 2023 were: England at 4.2 percent of the total population (208,428 people), People’s Republic of China at 2.9 percent (145,371 people), and India at 2.9 percent (142,920 people). 31,779 people in New Zealand were born in the United States. The number of people born in the Philippines increased from 37,299 people (0.9 percent) in 2013 to 99,264 (2.0 percent) in 2023. Not all of these foreign-born people are citizens or even necessarily permanent residents—they’re merely “usually resident”, and may be on work permits and visas. [For more detailed information, see “Census results reflect Aotearoa New Zealand’s diversity”, which also includes information on languages spoken and ethnicity].

• Around two-thirds of households in New Zealand (1,175,217 or 66.0 percent) now own their home, compared with 64.5 percent in 2018. Stats NZ principal analyst, Rosemary Goodyear, noted that, “This increase in home ownership, although small, is a reversal of the falling rates we have seen since home ownership peaked in the early 1990s.” However, home ownership is lowest in Auckland (59.5 percent), probably in part because it has some of the highest house prices in the country.

• About two-thirds of private dwellings (66.8 percent) had heat pumps in 2023, compared with just under half (47.3 percent) in 2018. That’s a huge increase, and that makes homes warmer and drier, but their energy efficiency makes the increase good new for the country. 

• Landline telephones are rapidly declining in use. In 2023, 31.0 percent of households had a landline, down from 62.5 percent in the 2018 Census. I don’t know if they have a way to track VOIP phones (what I have), which are internet-based but use traditional “landline” phone numbers.

Every time I look at newly-released census statistics, I always find things I think are interesting, and there was obviously far more in the press releases than I’ve shared here. Eventually I’ll look at the raw data to see if the answers to any of my questions are there, or can be extrapolated from the data that is there. But that’s a job for the future. Right now, though, it’s like Christmas for statistics and demographics nerds like me. Hooray!

More information on any of these census statistics can be found in the links above. Also, “Home ownership increases and housing quality improves” has data about housing, including the last three points on my random facts list.

Another new month will bring, um…

It’s now October! This year has been flying past, although lots of people feel that the passage of time seems to speed up as we get older. In any event, each new month brings a perfect time to reassess, redirect, recommit—in short, every month we get the chance to change course.

Another paragraph goes here.

It’s been difficult for me to commit to this blog this year—obviously. The had been a challenging year, which I’ve talked about several times now. I’ve also recently made a change in the way I’m doing things that I have yet to talk about, but it will shape the course of this month and many more to come.

In the meantime, though, now that we’ve entered the last calendar quarter of 2024, this is a particularly good point to look at my blogging (lack of) progress this year. The numbers of posts tell the story, however, as of October 1, the total number of posts rose to 124, which is three more than in my very first blogging year (2006)—except that I only blogged for the last three and half months of that year. Nevertheless, it counts! 2024 is not my worst-ever blogging year!

I thought that this year’s number of posts by month (visible along the right side of this blog) was interesting. The rankings to October 1 are: 1= January and April (23 each), 3. February (16), 4. March (14), 5. September (13), 6. May (12), 7. June (9), 8= July and August (7 each).

Because I’m me, I worked it out, and with 92 days left in this year (October 1 though December 31), I’d have to produce an average of 2.62 posts per day to hit my old goal of an average of one post per day over the year. That’s unlikely, to put it mildly. Even reaching my 2019 total of 263 posts would require an average of 1.51 posts per day. 2019 was, of course, the year that changed everything about my life, and nothing has been the same since, and for that reason in particular breaking that total is my dream goal for this year. However, my realistic stretch goal for 2024 is 238 or more, which would beat my 2021 total of 237, and it would also require an average of 1.2 posts per day for the rest of the year. I think that’s achievable. At the very least, I want more than 205 posts (my 2020 total).

Obviously, I’ve never given up hope that one day I might return to achieving one post per day over the year, and while that’s not going to happen this year, I should at least do better than several other of my “worst ever” years. This matters to me, first, because I’m highly competitive with myself, but also because so much has seemed so beyond my control this year that I want to work on regaining control of some of the things I seemed to have lost in 2019, and blogging is, theoretically, one of the of the things I can regain control over.

Blogging is not the only thing I want to regain control of. There’s my podcast, too—and I know for sure that’s about to return. This month marks 8 years since I last made and posted a YouTube video, something I never intended to stop doing, but, as with everything else, changes in my life got in the way. Someday I’d like to bring that back, too.

Having said all that, and having talked about my ambitious goals I’ve set, I’m also okay with the very real possibility that I won’t meet any of my goals. After all, this is the third day of this new month, and I’ve already missed two days of blogging. The past five years have taught me to be relaxed about where my blogging totals end up, precisely because I’ve always missed days. Besides, learning to let go of goals is just as important as having some in teh first place.

Still, even I’m curious to see what happens—or doesn’t. Of course.