Senseless census?

The current New Zealand government announced recently that it’s scrapping New Zealand’s five-yearly census. The government says it’s doing this because of rising costs, which, it thinks, can’t be justified when much of the information the census surveys can be extracted from data collected from various government agencies. Are they right? Or will their focus on cost alone cost New Zealanders in other ways?

In announcing the change, Statistics Minister Shane Reti described the change as being a”sharpened focus on quality economic, population stats”. Beginning in 2030, the new system will end the traditional nationwide census and will adopt a new approach “using administrative data, supported by a smaller annual survey and targeted data collection.” Reti claimed this “will save time and money while delivering more timely insights into New Zealand’s population,” but will it really? I think they’re overlooking the importance of what isn’t collected by anything except the census.

The government plans to use what’s called “administrative data”, which is basically statistics collected by various government agencies every day, things like tax records, education enrolments, health data, and other government data. in fact, Stats NZ uses administrative data for reports between censuses. Also, some of that sort of data is NOT collected by the current census, and so, it’s true that routinely including administrative data will give Parliament and the government of the day a better idea of the state of the country—or, at least, programmes central government manages.

However, the census also collects data no one esle does, including sociological and cultural data, such as, languages spoken in the home, religious affiliation and non-affiliation, and, most recently, sexual orientation and gender identity. Administrative data may sometimes hint at such data, but there’s no reason for them to collect it. To be blunt, it’s not merely about taxation or performance of the economy, so government agencies don’t need, and so, don’t collect such data. This kind of data provides a fuller picture of who, exactly, New Zealanders are, things beyond empoyment, tax, student debt, or any other things government departments collect information on.

Censuses provide the data that helps elected governments to work out not just where government spending is needed, but also WHY the money needs to be spent. Census data also gives local government insights into where new parks, public libraries, and various local improvements will be needed. Basically, getting the fullest, most complete picture of the people helps elected representatives to better represent the people who put them in power, as well as all the people who didn’t for whatever reason, like, for example, because they’re under 18.

Continuing the financial argument, Reti said, “Relying solely on a nationwide census day is no longer financially viable. In 2013, the census cost $104 million. In 2023, costs had risen astronomically to $325 million and the next was expected to come in at $400 million over five years [emphasis added]. I have absolutely no idea what that “over five years” thing means, and neither the press release nor media coverage have explained it—at all. Speaking of unexplained things, the announcement says that the census will end in 2030, but the next census was due to be in 2028—two years before the announced end of the census, so what’s going on? Are we not doing the 2028 census? If not, why isn’t the end date 2028 instead of 2030? The press release doesn’t say, but I saw a journalist’s comment (sadly, I didn’t bookmark it…) that we may have done our last census. Does the current government know what's up?

Still, despite Reti’s focus on cost alone, and even ignoring his weird, unexplained conflicting timeline, he was correct about one thing when he said, “successive censuses have been beset with issues or failed to meet expectations.” Absolutely true. It’s also absolutely true that we don’t know if the current government ever explored ways to improve the census rather than killing it off, because they don’t seem to have ever mentioned doing that, or having decided not to do that.

I have huge concerns about whether any of the data after the census ends will be complete, or even as useful. Stats NZ is the agency that currently conducts the census and will presumably collate the administrative data and the results from the “smaller annual survey and targeted data collection” the current government claims will fill in the missing data from the cancelled census. Will Stats NZ actually even be ABLE to get useful information about the needs of minority and vulnerable communities through the those planned targeted special surveys? Asking people who already mistrust government to do the census is a huge ask right now, but getting them to do a special survey most people don’t get asked to do sounds like it’s destined to fail. In fact, this non-compliance could make the “errors” in recent censuses seem very minor.

Conservative governments always look to cut costs, and so, services provided by government. In general, those who are obsessed with the cost of everything seldom understand the true value of anything. The current coalition government has the numbers to push through the required legislation, though if they lose the 2026 election, the new government could repeal the changes—or, not. That, too, is unknown territory.

To me, this issue isn’t merely about money, but also about the quality of the data, and I’m not convinced that what the current government is proposing with provide quality data that elected representatives in Parliament and local government alike need. As a middle ground, it seems to me that switching to a decennial census (like the USA has) could allow the collection of census data to periodically correct the data collected by other means, while still saving money. Maybe in time, as systems improve, the census wouldn’t be needed, but I’m not convinced that time is now.

Word nerd footnote: The formal term for a census conducted once every five years is to call it a “quinquennial census”. I can't remember ever hearing anyone using the term quinquennial, either for that or to refer to something that last five years (its other meaning). But I avoided using it in this post—until this footnote.

New Zealand is changing

The 2023 New Zealand Census data that I’ve been waiting for has finally been released, and to statistics and demographics nerds like me, it’s utterly fascinating. To avoid burying the lede, New Zealand is finally majority non-religious. I’ve written about that subject several times over the years, and have always said this was inevitable.

This is the way Statistics NZ reported the change:

For the first time since the New Zealand census began to collect religious affiliation, over half of the census usually resident population had no religion at the time of the 2023 Census. The proportion of people with ‘No religion’ steadily increased from 41.9 percent (1,635,348) in 2013, to 48.2 percent (2,264,601) in 2018, and 51.6 percent (2,576,049) in 2023.

That’s an increase of ten points over a decade, but it was a slow change. This is the point where I always point out that “no religion” means precisely that: While it includes the categories atheist and agnostic, it also includes those who have “nothing in particular”. The only thing we know for sure about these people—which, full disclosure, is the category I chose for myself—is that we aren’t part of any organised religion. The stats for religious identification are also changing:

The three largest religious groupings in 2023 were:

• Christian – 1,614,636 people (down 102,543) or 32.3 percent of the total population, compared with 36.5 percent in 2018
• Hindu – 144,753 people (up 21,369) or 2.9 percent compared with 2.6 percent in 2018
• Islam – 75,138 people (up 14,517) or 1.5 percent compared with 1.3 percent in 2018.

I think that the small increase in those choosing Hindu or Islam is probably because of immigration (though that might take deeper analysis to confirm), but it’s fascinating that less than a third of New Zealanders identify as Christian—this in a country once heavily dominated by those identifying as Christian.

New Zealand has actually been a secular nation for a very long time, even when religious identification was still a majority (in other words, 2018 and earlier). In my personal experience, most New Zealanders don’t like having religion shoved in their faces, so much so that door-to-door proselytisers, and pretty much any insistent religious person, is likely to be called a “god botherer” (though not to their faces…) by ordinary Kiwis—even including many of those who identify as Christian. Basically, Kiwis want to be left alone.

The 2023 Census was the first to ask people about their gender, sexual identity, and whether they were born with a variation of sex characteristics. The results showed that around 1 in 20 adults belonged to Rainbow or LGBTIQ+ communities. Wellington has the highest percentage (11.3 percent) of LGBTIQ+ residents, Dunedin was second (with 7.3 percent), then Christchurch (6.0 percent), Palmerston North (5.8 percent), and Hamilton (5.6 percent). Auckland, by far New Zealand’s largest city, had a lower percentage of people who belonged to the LGBTIQ+ population (4.9 percent) than Hamilton has, which surprised me. Within Auckland local board areas, Waitematā, which is mainly the central city, including some historically LGBTIQ+ suburbs (neighbourhoods), had the highest proportion of LGBTIQ+ adults, with 12 percent. [For more detailed information, see “2023 Census shows 1 in 20 adults belong to Aotearoa New Zealand’s LGBTIQ+ population”].

Here are a few random facts I thought were interesting:

• In 2023, 22.5 percent of the population was 60 years and over, and 18.7 percent were children under 15 years. These proportions were 20.8 and 19.6 percent respectivelyin 2018. Also, the average number of children born to each female aged 15 years and over was 1.6, down from 1.7 children in 2018 and 1.8 in 2013. Taken together, this shows why immigration will continue to be important for New Zealand if it is to cope with an aging population and declining numbers of New Zealand-born young people to support them.

• Almost 30 percent of usual residents were born overseas. The most common overseas birthplaces in 2023 were: England at 4.2 percent of the total population (208,428 people), People’s Republic of China at 2.9 percent (145,371 people), and India at 2.9 percent (142,920 people). 31,779 people in New Zealand were born in the United States. The number of people born in the Philippines increased from 37,299 people (0.9 percent) in 2013 to 99,264 (2.0 percent) in 2023. Not all of these foreign-born people are citizens or even necessarily permanent residents—they’re merely “usually resident”, and may be on work permits and visas. [For more detailed information, see “Census results reflect Aotearoa New Zealand’s diversity”, which also includes information on languages spoken and ethnicity].

• Around two-thirds of households in New Zealand (1,175,217 or 66.0 percent) now own their home, compared with 64.5 percent in 2018. Stats NZ principal analyst, Rosemary Goodyear, noted that, “This increase in home ownership, although small, is a reversal of the falling rates we have seen since home ownership peaked in the early 1990s.” However, home ownership is lowest in Auckland (59.5 percent), probably in part because it has some of the highest house prices in the country.

• About two-thirds of private dwellings (66.8 percent) had heat pumps in 2023, compared with just under half (47.3 percent) in 2018. That’s a huge increase, and that makes homes warmer and drier, but their energy efficiency makes the increase good new for the country. 

• Landline telephones are rapidly declining in use. In 2023, 31.0 percent of households had a landline, down from 62.5 percent in the 2018 Census. I don’t know if they have a way to track VOIP phones (what I have), which are internet-based but use traditional “landline” phone numbers.

Every time I look at newly-released census statistics, I always find things I think are interesting, and there was obviously far more in the press releases than I’ve shared here. Eventually I’ll look at the raw data to see if the answers to any of my questions are there, or can be extrapolated from the data that is there. But that’s a job for the future. Right now, though, it’s like Christmas for statistics and demographics nerds like me. Hooray!

More information on any of these census statistics can be found in the links above. Also, “Home ownership increases and housing quality improves” has data about housing, including the last three points on my random facts list.