Thursday, July 16, 2015

Preparing the circus’ center ring

The Washington Post graphic above shows who is currently in a position to be included in the Fox “News” debate of the Republican presidential candidates to be held on August 6. The Post explains how this will work:
You'll remember that Fox News decided to manage the ever-ballooning Republican field by allowing only the 10 candidates performing the best in the five most recent national polls. (In the event of a tie for 10th, the tied candidates get to participate as well.) Given the importance of the first debate, that top-10 status has become a key test for candidates. [Link in the original]
As of today, there’s a tie for ninth place, so there are only ten candidates; quite frankly, I can’t see any of the bottom six being included (one of whom, John Kasich, isn’t yet a declared candidate, though he’s expected to become one next week). If they’re not included, it almost certainly means their candidacies will struggle to survive, and may never even get the chance to face any actual voters; I’m not sure how I feel about that.

The Post plans on updating the graphic, and if that means the link updates, too (as it should), then anyone accessing this post after today may see something different than when I posted it. So, for their benefit, here are the candidates who make the cut, ranked by percentage of support as of today: Jeb (just don’t say) Bush: 17; Donald Trump: 10.8; Scott “Koch” Walker: 9.3; Marco Rubio: 7.8; Ben Carson: 7.6; Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee tied at 6.5; Ted Cruz: 5.1; Rick Perry and Chris Christie tied at 2.9.

Update - 18 July: I can now confirm that the graphic does update, as Rick "Frothy Mix" Santorum has moved up, knocking Rick Perry out. Further rearranging is likely before the final cast list is announced.

Tip o’ the hat to Roger Green who sent me the link; I don’t check out the Post all that often due to the limit in the number of articles one can access for free in a month.


rogerogreen said...

The inanity of polling as the criteria is that a serious candidate may need the exposure of the debates to make his (or her) case. Last time I looked, Trump was 8th or 9th. Now he's 2nd. And how is Ben Carson - "he's black, but he's not Obama!" - in 5h place?

rogerogreen said...

I've already timed out on the number of LA Times articles I can see in July.

rogerogreen said...

WOW, Santorum is up, Perry is down! http://blog.timesunion.com/rogergreen/your-republican-presidential-debate-participants-subject-to-change/5140/

rogerogreen said...

Given the massive margin of error for combining FIVE polls, I wonder if 10 & 11 might make the podium.