Statistical Ignorance

In my post about Paula Bennett’s bullying tactics earlier today I mentioned people attacking the two beneficiaries. I’ve also written recently about right wing commenters on blogs and news articles. The people commenting actually share one thing: They often have no understanding of facts and statistics. Very often, they’d contradict or disprove what they say, but sometimes their ignorance even prevents them from stating their case strongly.

There’s a huge difference between people who are simply ignorant of the facts of an issue and those who deliberately ignore them. At some time or other, most people say things we believe to be true, facts we assume to be facts but don’t check. That can be forgiven; people who ignore facts deliberately cannot.

Commenters on the Paula Bennett controversy are a good example of all this. Many people attacked the two beneficiaries by declaring that they get more money than “most New Zealanders.” This is what I meant when I said these harsh critics “believe that beneficiaries are living in the lap of luxury, creaming it at taxpayer expense.” Is there any truth in that—do they have a legitimate gripe?

No.

According to Statistics New Zealand’s “New Zealand Income Survey: June 2008 quarter” (the most recent available), the average (mean) weekly wage and salary income in New Zealand is $827. One beneficiary received $715 per week, the other $554 per week. That means that the average wage/salary earner in New Zealand received nearly 16% more than the highest paid beneficiary, and nearly 50% more than the lowest paid one. I found this out in less than a minute.

Why do so many people have it so wrong? Part of it is psychological: Life isn’t fair, and when people see themselves as suffering, they hate seeing people who they think “don’t deserve it” apparently doing better. Their underlying assumption—that the beneficiaries are doing better—is false, but they don’t know that because annual wage and salary reports aren’t exactly top of most people’s reading lists.

Maybe it’s time we all change and check our assumptions before we comment on a news story or blog post. Just like anyone else, I’ve been caught up in the heat of the moment, or I’ve simply made an assumption about the reality of the facts I knew. Lately, I’ve tried to go to original sources whenever possible, even if only to satisfy myself. It’s okay to have an opinion about something because of how you feel, but arguments are better when based on verifiable facts.

And facts are what was missing in the beat-up of the beneficiaries in New Zealand and what’s so often missing when conservatives, in particular, discuss public policy or issues. I don’t think they should be missing, and I’m trying to do my part to make sure they’re there. Getting people to pay attention is another matter altogether, and that may prove to be statistically impossible.