The day has arrived

The day we all knew was coming has arrived: Yesterday, New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced that New Zealand would move to Red in the “traffic light” system at 11:59pm that night. Nine cases in the Nelson/Marlborough region were confirmed as the Omicron variant, and because the original source of their infection was unknown, that means that Omicron is almost certainly loose in the community. They’d all flown to Auckland to attend a wedding and other events, and then home, and providing multiple opportunities to spread Covid.

And now the new reality begins.

The move to Red is nothing like Lockdown for the fully-vaccinated, and more than 93% of New Zealanders 12+ are fully vaccinated (more than 95% have had at least one dose). Nearly a million people have had a booster, which means that we’re approaching 20% of the entire population being fully vaccinated and boosted. These statistics are different measures, of course: Currently, New Zealanders aren’t eligible for a booster until it’s been at least four months since their second jab, and they must be 18 or older, too. Taking all that into account, at it means that at least half of all eligible New Zealanders have had their booster. Percentages for ordinary vaccines are calculated on the population 12 and older, even though younger children are now eligible for vaccination. No Matter how you count it, though, New Zealand is in reasonably good position to deal with Omicron.

Plans have been made for most people to isolate at home if they get sick, because most people will have mild or very mild symptoms. That’ll free up hospital capacity for the truly sick, and while the unvaccinated are at dramatically higher risk of illness requiring hospitalisation, there are only a bit more than 5% of of people 12+ who fall into that category.

Even so, Omicron spreads rapidly, and that could mean that the healthcare system could become overwhelmed. Many places in the world have had problems keeping supermarkets stocked due to illness among truck drivers and distribution workers. So, even if the healthcare system isn’t strained, other risks are still very real.

Anyone with any common sense could see the risks and challenges that we would or could face once Omicron got here, so I decided long ago to be ready for it. My goal was to minimise risk to me by avoiding, as much as possible, going to places that would increase my risk of infection—supermarkets and pharmacies in particular (going to a pharmacy right now seems like a particularly bad idea: That’s where all the sick people will go).

Over several weeks, I slowly stocked up on pantry staples in case there are supply disruptions, or in case I catch Covid and have to isolate. This past Friday, I bought Leo the biggest bag of dog food the store had, and it should last three or four months. There’s been disruption in the supply of pet food several times over the past two years, so I wasn’t willing to take the risk I might run out as Omicron spreads. This way, if supply becomes an issue, I’ll have time to get more food for him (or me…) or find a substitute.

To be clear, the Red Light won’t stop me going to shops when I need things, but it’ll make me remain aware and vigilant. For example, if I need to go to a home centre, I’ll plan it and get several things at once, rather than making several trips—which is actually what I do normally. I’ll also use a shopping trolley even if I only need a few small things because I use it as a physical distancer between me and another customer, something I’ve been doing for more than a year now (an example of that: Sometimes someone behind me stands too close, and I move to the front of the trolley, thereby keeping at least a metre between me and the lackadaisical customer behind me).

For me, this is about minimising risk by focusing on the things I can control (when and where I go to a shop, being aware of others’ behaviour when I’m in a shop, taking precautions to protect myself, those sorts of things). The only way to reduce my risk even farther would be to never leave the house, but even that’s not foolproof. In fact, any number of things could bring Covid to me at home, things I can’t necessarily control. However, I know the risks out and about, and those I can try to reduce and/or manage. Stocking-up on supplies was mostly just a way to prepare for possible shortages, a prudent measure given previous experiences here and overseas, but it also will minimise how much I have to venture out to the supermarket.

Nothing in life is without risk, and that’s even more true during a global pandemic. I can do everything I can to minimise and manage risk, and Omicron may still find me. I’m not going to live my life in fear, but will proceed with prudent caution and precautions.

Having said all that, this is only Phase One of my plans. I think that as the spread of Omicron gets worse, I’ll probably cut back on my trips out, ultimately eliminating them as much as humanly possible. My plan has always been to maintain a high level of vigilance and caution for two to three months, in order to give time for the crest of the Omicron wave to pass. That means increasing my level of caution more and more.

This time I was determined to be prepared. I’ll probably know sooner rather than later if I succeeded.