The outlook for tomorrow

More droughts and more flooding. Warmer nights, but longer winters. Those are some of the expected outcomes for New Zealand from climate change in the years ahead, according to a UN report released today. Some areas of the country will have water shortages, increasing the likelihood of bush and forest fires, while some coastal areas will face increasing damage from storm surges.

In the short run, there may be some benefits, such as longer growing seasons for some parts of the country. Longer term, it’s another matter.

The government is taking steps toward making New Zealand carbon-neutral and sustainable, but the opposition claims that New Zealand emissions are growing faster than America’s:

This 6.8% growth [in greenhouse gasses] for New Zealand…compares to growth of 1.3% in the United States, 5% in Australia and a drop of 1% in the United Kingdom.

Now here’s the extraordinary thing about all this: BOTH of New Zealand’s largest parties are pledged to fighting climate change—on both the centre-left and centre-right. Most of the smaller parties are similarly pledged to the fight, which means that a clear and huge majority backs action. The problem is they don’t agree on the direction that change should take, nor how it should be accomplished.

And so, the dire predictions, which are likely to come true. As a wealthy nation, New Zealand is better able to prepare for climate changes than are Pacific Island nations who could be devastated by changes in climate, especially more frequent and more severe storms.

If only the politicians had reached their consensus decades ago, maybe the need to adapt would never have arisen. But it’s in the nature of humans, I guess, to ignore problems as long as possible. Be that as it may, at least New Zealand politicians are moving in the right direction, but there may still be stormy weather ahead.