Since the MMP era began in 1996, no overtly or mainly Christian Party has ever crossed the 5% threshold (see chart above) or won an Electorate Seat, and so, none have ever entered Parliament [a YouTube video from CGP Grey, “Mixed-Member Proportional Representation Explained” explains the MMP electoral system we use in New Zealand]. The best they ever did was way back in 1996. Some would say that the second-best year was 2014, however, that year the Conservative Party denied it even was a “Christian” party, though it was led by a self-described conservative Christian and it espoused positions backed by conservative Christian activists. Does it even count as a “Christian” party? Probably not, but including them in the chart shows that not even a non-Christian “Christian” party has been able to get into Parliament.
There was another party, United Future New Zealand, that was formed by the merger of a conservative Christian party (Future New Zealand, which used to be the Christian Democrats) and a centrist one, the United Party. It was in Parliament 2002-2017, though with just one MP from 2008 until 2017. The party was saddled with Rightwing Christianists from 2002-2007, though they left in a huff before the 2008 election, which allowed then party leader Peter Dunne to declare the party solidly centrist. The thing with United Future is that not only was it not officially a Christian party, they also didn’t officially push positions backed by conservative Christian activists, even if its conservative Christians caused trouble for Dunne and the party, particularly when it was in coalition with the Centre-Left NZ Labour Party. The fact that the party did so well in 2002 was precisely because of the centrist policies Dunne advocated, not the because of the Rightwing “Christian” people tagging along, so it’s simply not logical to lump them in with actual Christian parties, all of which have been Rightwing in New Zealand (although the early leaders of the Labour Party often described their agenda as “Christianity in action” or “Christian socialism”). So, the fact United Future had a gaggle of grumpy conservative Christian MPs didn't make it a “Christian” party in any way, in my view.
To do well, a Rightwing “Christian” party would have to tap into a large field of like-minded voters, but there’s no evidence that such a large group exists. Almost half (48%) of New Zealanders said they were Christian in the 2013 Census, the most recent figures we have available due to the disaster that was the 2018 Census. However, 42% of New Zealanders said they had no religion, a figure that includes not only atheists and agnostics, but also believers of various sorts who don’t have a particular religion. 6% declared non-Christian religions, and 4% gave no answer whatsoever.
Conservative Christians of all sorts make up maybe 5% of the population, give or take, but let’s be generous and say it’s double that. Isn’t ten percent of the population enough potentially? No, and for one reason: Adults. The Census counts everyone who is in New Zealand on Census night, resident and visitor, adult and child. We cannot assume that the 5%, let alone the overly generous 10%, are adults eligible and registered to vote.
Even so, let’s pretend that a very generous 10% of the registered voters are Rightwing Christians. Even if that were true, any explicitly or implicitly “Christian” party would still fail to get 5% of the Party Vote, as they always have. That’s because most conservative Christians care about a lot more than just social issues, which is the only point of difference that Rightwing “Christian” parties have from other parties. Such voters know that if they want to get things done in Parliament, they need to be IN Parliament, and the only conservative party that will back them, at least some of the time, on their social conservatism—and get into Parliament—is the New Zealand National Party. Most conservative Christian voters in New Zealand have historically been astute enough to know that a vote for a Rightwing “Christian” party is a wasted vote, so they vote for “good enough” National.
So, at the moment, there’s a lot of blustering about the possible two Rightwing “Christian” parties that may be formed, either by National MP Alfred Ngaro, or by the leaders of a far-right “Christian”
I’ve read commentators making all sorts of breathless predictions, such as, Ngaro (who I think is an opportunistic hypocrite) could appeal to Polynesians who back Labour. That relies on the false premise that they always vote religiously, and they obviously don’t. Second, there are many reasons why such voters often back Labour, just as there are many reasons apart from religion why some conservative Christians back National. Turnout and actual vote totals suggest that National already has the lion’s share, so to speak, of conservative Christian voters of all races, and most such voters any new “Christian” party got would come from National. In any case, it’s insulting to Polynesians—or anyone, really—to suggest they’d be single-issue voters because of their race or culture.
A conservative Christian wrote a piece for Noted, talking about why these parties Rightwing "Christian" parties would be bad for conservative Christians. Among other things he said:
Many voters implacably oppose legalising marijuana. Some Christians seem to believe there is an 11th commandment that says “Thou shall not smoke dope”. This could be a good banner for Ngaro and his Christian soldiers to march under, gathering up other clean-living folk to push the party over the 5% barrier into Parliament without having to win an electorate seat.What he was talking about is that there will be a referendum on some form of legalisation of marijuana held at the 2020 election. I’m sure it will draw some older voters’ ire, and also that of some religious conservatives. However, they always vote, anyway—older voters in particular. At the same time, that referendum will also draw younger—and more Progressive—voters to the polls to vote for legalisation, and younger voters vote overwhelmingly for the Greens (in particular) and also for Labour—not National, and definitely not for any Rightwing “Christian” parties campaigning against the very position they support.
So far, all that suggests no net gain for National, but probably a loss of Party Votes if the Rightwing “Christian” parties do well, but not well enough to get into Parliament. At the same time, the very referendum that might drive “implacably opposed” social conservatives will also drive younger voters to cancel them out.
That leaves only one way for Rightwing “Christian” parties to get into Parliament: Winning an Electorate seat. They have two ways to do that: That church's party could take the Māori Electorate of Te Tai Tokerau in Northland from Labour, or for National to gift a safe National seat to Ngaro. Both are fraught.
The Te Tai Tokerau scenario assumes an awful lot, not the least that voters will pick the bombastic Hone Harawira rather than the incumbent MP, Labour’s Kelvin Davis, who is a government minister. It’s impossible to see any scenario in which any National Party Prime Minister would give Harawira a ministerial portfolio. I think it’s likely that his time has passed, and his campaign would come across as little more than a quixotic grudge match. And that assumes the often Left-leaning Harawira could resist fighting with the Rightwing “Christians” he was in bed with.
It’s possible that National could gift a safe National seat to Ngaro, but where? There are a lot of electorates that National can count on winning, but that doesn’t mean their voters are obedient and subservient to the party’s wishes as the National voters in Epsom are. Moreover, many National voters have no particular love for Rightwing “Christian” politics, so if they lack party obedience, National can’t count on getting Ngaro in as the candidate from some Rightwing “Christian” party.
This all matters because if—IF—the Rightwing “Christians” fail to cross the 5% threshold, but if—IF—they win an Electorate seat, then all their Party Votes will count. This means that if they got around 3% of the Party Vote AND an Electorate seat they’d likely get 3 or 4 MPs (depending on a number of factors), and that could literally give National a shot at of re-taking government.
On balance, there is a remote chance, built on a a number of things going absolutely perfectly, that could enable Rightwing “Christian” party into Parliament. This is highly improbable to happen because 1. Rightwing “Christian” politicians (and Rightwing “Christians” in general) aren’t very popular in New Zealand (they’re called “god-botherers” by ordinary Kiwis), so they’d have a hard time gaining votes from anyone but their small base—most of whom are too practical to abandon National. 2. New Zealand is barely Christian (or, it wasn’t in 2013…), and the number saying they’re Christian has been falling steadily; New Zealand is much less Christian than it was 23 years ago when a Rightwing “Christian” party came the closest to getting into Parliament. 3. The very referendum that conservatives think will help a Rightwing “Christian” party into Parliament will also drive their exact opposites to the polls, likely far more than cancelling out any benefit to the Rightwing “Christian” party/parties. And, finally, the people behind these Rightwing “Christian” parties that may come into being are people who aren't liked generally and who have a history of saying polarising things that turn off the majority of mainstream New Zealanders, and, partly because of that, there’s absolutely no mass affection for them.
Given all that, and especially if Labour is still popular next year, I feel confident saying that this fortnight’s flurry of news about the possible formation of a Rightwing “Christian” party or parties has been all sizzle and no sausage. I will, however offer two words of warning: Brexit and Donnie. Hardly anyone thought those two elections would turn out the way they did, and that has taught us that one underestimates the far right at their peril. We are seeing the march of far right, fascistic populist nationalism all over the Western world, and it would be foolish to think it can’t happen here, too, no matter how improbable that may be. However, if it does come, it’s unlikely to be religious based, and that’s one thing we can take some comfort in.
Update: One of the two parties is not going ahead.
Related:
“Take it from a Christian conservative: a Ngaro splinter party is a terrible idea” – The Spinoff (also linked above)
“John Armstrong's opinion: Christian parties are of little assistance to the centre-right” – TVNZ’s One News Now
“I don't see Brian and Hannah Tamaki's Christian party lasting long” – Stuff
“Could Christian soldiers march no-mates National into office?” – Noted
“Coalition NZ: Hannah Tamaki, KFC, abortion, Alfred Ngaro” – Newshub
“The birth of Destiny’s child” – newsroom
“Where Hannah Tamaki stands on homosexuality and Jacinda Ardern” – Newshub
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