An early election?

I’m beginning to wonder if Prime Minister John Key may be manoeuvring for an early election. After a string of bad decisions by his government, he then also received intense flak from the most conservative members of his own party over his dealings with the Maori Party.

There have been some indications that his government is backing off of proposals to mine sensitive conservation land (for now), dealing to the National Party’s biggest electoral weakness. Then yesterday Key suddenly announced that the Crown would not turn over ownership of Te Urewera National Park to Tuhoe—the iwi (tribe) from whom the land was originally seized.

Negotiations with Tuhoe had been going on for about two years and indications were that they were about to announce an agreement in principal. Tuhoe had always said that ownership of the national park was a bottom-line issue for them. But over the weekend, Key received intense disapproval from members of his National Party for what the party’s right wing sees as too much accommodation of Maori; transferring ownership would’ve been too much for some members of the party.

At the moment, voter disenchantment with National Party policies hasn’t translated into support for the Labour Party. This means that if the election was held early, Key may be able to hold onto power. If he waits, he faces other risks.

In November, the Auckland Super City comes into being, a huge upheaval lasting for a decade or more. Rates bills (similar to American property taxes) will soar. If the elections are held on time, National will lose all of the Auckland electorates it won from Labour in the last election, and probably a few more as well: National and the neoconservative Act Party will bear the brunt of Aucklanders’ wrath.

Act, Key’s other main coalition partner, is already in trouble: The party will not cross the five percent threshold no matter when the election is held and will be in Parliament only if its leader, Rodney Hide, wins re-election. However, it appears that many mainstream Aucklanders hold Hide personally responsible for the Auckland merger, and their opinion of him will only get worse as time goes on.

All of this gives Key a strong incentive to go to the polls early, and manufacturing a split with the Maori Party may be his excuse. It may, in fact, be his only shot at a second term. Such an election would scapegoat Maori, though, so it’s in their best interests to stay with the government in some form (National doesn’t need the party to lead government).

In any case, this is one political soap opera that’s nowhere near its final act.