Wednesday, November 09, 2016

Live-blogging the 2016 US election

I decided to live blog the 2016 US Election results. That means, basically, that I’ll update this post as events happen. I plan to start around 7:15pm Eastern Time, which is 1:15pm New Zealand Time, and continue on until a winner is declared or it gets too late, whichever is first.

Feel free to play along. You can comment here, or on the AmeriNZ Facebook Page, though I’ll probably forget to check there very often, to be honest. You may need to periodically refresh the blog to see updates, and they won’t be posted on a set schedule.

Finally, this post will share my real-time reactions to news as it happens. I’m a supporter of Hillary Clinton and the Democrats. You can’t say you haven’t been warned!

1:15pm NZDT (7:15pm EST)

And, we're off!

Nothing unexpected has happened yet, which isn't a surprise. It's still very early, after all.

1:54pm NZDT (7:54pm EST)

The next wave of poll closings will be big, and includes Florida. Which makes me wonder: How/why is CNN reporting the ongoing count in Florida when the polls aren't closed?

2:04pm NZDT (8:04pm EST)

Big number of states' polls have now closed. But we still don't have many projected. Those that have been so far are still no surprise. That's okay—it's the end number, 270 Electoral Votes, that matters.

2:14pm NZDT (8:14pm EST)

Among "Battleground States", North Carolina looks good for Clinton, so does Florida, though neither are certain. Florida is likely to be tight, more or less like 2012. So far, Clinton is doing similarly to President Obama in 2012. While Ohio looks good right now, it's WAY too early.

And, Wolff Blitzer gets way too excited about a few votes being added to Florida's totals. Things change a lot when votes are being tallied—does he not know that? Does he not listen to John King?

2:25pm NZDT (8:25pm EST)

CNN projecting Senate seats. Tammy Duckworth has won US Senate from Illinois (I voted for her). This was certain going into the elections. It's the first Democratic pick-up. Sorry to see Rubio going back to the Senate. His 2020 Republican presidential campaign begins tomorrow.

2:32pm NZDT (8:32pm EST)

CNN makes more projections, ALL of them expected (AL, MS, SC). Why does Wolf act so surprised and excited about what we all knew what was happening?!

2:49pm NZDT (8:49pm EST)

Still no "Battleground States" called yet. There are too many urban areas not counted yet. Meanwhile, AP has called Indiana US Senate for Republicans, which is a shame. Bayh is a conservative Democrat, but at least he'd have helped Democrats take control of the Senate. Not a surprise, though.

3:02pm NZDT (9:02pm EST)

14 states close their polls, and some states called—exactly as they were expected to go. Still no surprises—and still no "Battleground States" called yet. This could be a long night.

3:13pm NZDT (9:13pm EST)

CNN calls Arkansas and Texas for Donald, both totally expected. However, Florida will be a squeaker.

3:46pm NZDT (9:46pm EST)

CNN projects Republicans will keep control of the US House, as expected. They drew Congressional District boundaries to ensure they control the House even though American voters favour Democrats. Florida is looking very shaky. Don must win Florida, but Hillary Clinton can lose it.

4:02pm NZDT (10:02pm EST)

Four states' polls have closed. CNN projects Montana for Don, as expected. Fox called New Mexico for Hillary Clinton, which she was expected to win, ages ago, but CNN has said nothing.

4:15pm NZDT (10:15pm EST)

CNN finally calls New Mexico for Hillary Clinton, and also Missouri for Don. Both were expected. STILL no "Battleground States" called.

4:27pm NZDT (10:27pm EST)

CNN calls Ohio for Don. This very bad news. It wasn't entirely unexpected, but it's still very bad. Hillary Clinton's turnout is way below where it should have been, and in many placed Don is doing better than Romney did in 2012 (quite possibly because Don isn't a Mormon).

4:37pm NZDT (10:37pm EST)

Five Thirty Eight says Hillary Clinton has won Virginia—a much needed win, but one she'd been expected to win. Still 13 Electoral Votes is 13 Electoral Votes. CNN called it for Hillary Clinton as I finished this update.

4:45pm NZDT (10:45pm EST)

Hillary Clinton has won Colorado, another state she was expected to win. Analysts from Five Thirty Eight think that she has lost Wisconsin, a state she was expected to win.

4:48pm NZDT (10:48pm EST)

CNN finally projects that Hillary Clinton has won Colorado. They point out Michigan is still close to call.

4:55pm NZDT (10:55pm EST)

If Hillary Clinton loses Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, she won't win the presidency. Winning either Pennsylvania or Michigan is necessary, but she was expected to win Pennsylvania, ao that one is kind of vital. There just aren't likely to be any states she'll pick up from Don or expectations later on to make up the difference.

5:03pm NZDT (11:03pm EST)

Hillary Clinton has won California and Hawaii, as expected. Don won Idaho, also as expected.

5:08pm NZDT (11:08pm EST)

CNN calls North Carolina for Don. More bad news.

5:17pm NZDT (11:17pm EST)

CNN called Oregon for Hillary Clinton, which is good news, but she was expected to win that.

5:31pm NZDT (11:31pm EST)

Don has won Utah, normally a Republican state.

5:35pm NZDT (11:35pm EST)

Florida falls to Don. It looks more likely like he'll win.

5:41pm NZDT (11:41pm EST)

CNN finally projects Washington for Hillary Clinton, one of the states expected she'd win. Don won Iowa, which was also expected.

5:47pm NZDT (11:47pm EST)

CNN projects that Don takes Georgia. Duh.

5:58pm NZDT (11:58pm EST)

I had absolutely no idea that so many Americans were so pathologically stupid. How does such idiocy spread so widely?

6:07pm NZDT (12:07am EST)

CNN projects Iowa, a normally Republican state, long after others called it.

6:34pm NZDT (12:34am EST)

CNN Calls Nevada for Hillary Clinton. Good.

6:41pm NZDT (12:41am EST)

It looks like the "Bradley Effect" actually happened, which isn't surprising: Who on earth would be willing to admit that they were going to vote for a racist, xenophobic pussy-grabbing misogynist.

7:01pm NZDT (1:01am EST)

Welp, it looks like it's all over. Can't see where Hillary Clinton can get any enough votes in Wisconsin and probably not Pennsylvania, both states everyone thought Hillary would win.

7:43pm NZDT (1:43am EST)

CNN calls Alaska for Don. Others say Pennsylvania has fallen to him. It's all over.


7:45pm NZDT
(1:45am EST)

I'm done. No point continuing tonight when it's all over bar the droning on TV. Night.

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